Same Old Song and Dance

One of these days, I'll learn.
Last year, 3 weeks before the Zof, I ran the Newport Liberty Half Marathon. Ran fast, PR'd, got myself an auto qualifier for the NYC Marathon...and proceeded to bring about some calf/knee/ankle issues which lead to a DNF on the long course at the Zof.
2 months ago, I ran a 25K Trail Race as part of my prep for the marathon. Ran fast, came in second place, felt really good about myself...and brought about some calf/knee/ankle issues which lead to a 2 week setback in my marathon prep.
2 weeks ago, I ran a 25K as my final race prep for the marathon. Ran fast, came in 3rd place overall...by now you can figure out where this is heading.
This time, it's my left achilles...a new one for me. And I think it's the worst setback I've had since I've been running. I ran 4 miles yesterday, pain free, after 3 days of rest. It might have been the best 4 mile run I've ever had, because of all the anxiety I had about lacing up my sneakers and heading out the door. The thing is, 4 miles is not 26.2...hell, at this point, my 6 mile run planned for tomorrow is making me nervous. And that's the problem with this particular injury so close to the race...I'm not really sure how it's going to go in the next few weeks.
If I can't run 16 by next weekend, I'm going to bail...I'm not going to risk a rupture or walking for 5 hours through the 5 boroughs. If I do run...I'm throwing sub 3 hours out the door. My 25K last weekend put me right where I needed to be to get there...until the achilles decided to flare up (I think the hardest part about holding back will be watching everyone run away from me at the start...I got a GREAT start spot thanks to my qualifying time, in the first corral, second wave, which means I won't have to try and run through the crowds or stand around for an extra hour before the start)...so here's the new goal...get to the start, pain free. Run without pain...and let the rest sort itself out as we go along.