Thursday, January 28, 2010


National Weather Service Forecast
North Conway, NH

Tonight: A chance of snow showers, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 7. Wind chill values as low as -10. West wind between 10 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 13. Wind chill values as low as -11. West wind around 17 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -4. Wind chill values as low as -19. West wind between 9 and 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 17. Northwest wind between 7 and 9 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 4.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 23.

Seriously, what the hell am I thinking?

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

My head hurts...

This is a copy of an email I sent to Sharon Epperson this morning...

Is really something right now...there is a lot going on Sharon, so much news, so many rumours...Let's think about everything since last thursday morning...a negative Philly Index, the presidents press conference on the banks...a bullish crude number which hasn't played out in the markets, the Bernanke story at the end of the week, the Bernanke story at the beginning of the week...Greece, Spain...China telling banks to stop lending, rumours of China lending money to Greece, people continuing to buy US treasuries and watching yields come down...The dow and s&p getting hit in spite of relatively good earnings...AIG hearings today...state of the Union tonight...another supply number today, trying to figure out whether or not to believe the API's...and this is only in 1 WEEK!!! We are in the midst of an incredibly volatile period, and looks as though there's no end in sight...
Really something

I know, I know...most of you are out there wondering why the hell I do this...I'm still trying to figure that out. I have days where I feel really good, like I can keep this gig going. I don't feel guilty about what I'm doing...I'm not killing anybody, and my 50 trades a day are definitely NOT having any impact on markets that see cumulative volumes of BILLIONS of transactions a day. I've been able to spend the first year of my daughter's life at home...waking up with her every morning, walking my dog, having coffee with my wife. I'll never, ever regret this time.

To me, everything is just a number, and I'm trying to figure out which numbers look right and which seem a little off. Some say it's like gambling, spinning the wheel and betting on black. I don't see it that way, I'd like to think that success (or failure) is reliant upon far more than chance. The email this morning is a summary of all the things that I've noticed have had immediate impact on the markets in the past 5 sessions. Supply number this morning at 10:30...who knows what today will bring

Monday, January 18, 2010

2 Days

2 Bikes, 2 might as well have been 2 seasons. Saturday felt like one of those late winter days when the sun shines a little warmer on your face and you catch yourself thinking about what it might be like to go for a ride without your entire winter kit. I went for a ride on the computer, no heart rate, no watts...just rolling out the door for a few hours. Everyone seemed to be out. I could see all the lines on the side of the rolling thru a few months of salt and leaving their mark. I wondered who was rolling up the ridge before looks like Don and the boys finally had a good morning. 2 hours in an easy gear, staying in the saddle, smiling the whole time...every Saturday ride in January should be so good.

It took me about an hour to get the blood flowing thru my toes after yesterdays ride. Sunday felt like one of those late November rides where you can't help but wonder what the hell you were thinking when you rolled out the door. Sometimes you hear people talk about "character building" rides or efforts. Sometimes I'll speak of particularly hard days as sufferfests. I'm not sure my character is any stronger...and 90 minutes hardly qualifies as a "fest" of any sort...but rolling down Tracy with the rain literally stinging my legs (it felt at one point like I had a bunch of needles being jabbed into my legs) certainly deserves a qualifier of some sort...I'm open to suggestions.

January miles on the roads, whether they be on skinny tires or fat, are bonus miles. The Cyclops is still the primary mode of "transport". But every so often it's nice take off the training wheels and go for a ride.

Saturday, January 09, 2010

Kicking Television...

Is the name of a GREAT live album (or CD, or download...I'm not really sure how any of us get ahold of our music anymore) by Wilco. I mention the album because it has become the soundtrack to my morning as I'm dancing around the house with Abigail...singing, laughing and generally having a glorious time. Saturday mornings have become daddy time around here. Kira's found a great friend and running partner in Tori, so she's usually out the door after feeding Abbie her breakfast. Some mornings we're out the door for a walk with Luna, this morning we're dancing around the house because it's 15 degrees outside.

I started the New Year with every intention of being more prolific with my journal/blogging entries. And then life gets in the way. It's funny how each morning can start full of ambition and ideas...and by 8PM you wonder where the day has gone and all you want to do is top off your glass of wine and watch an episode of House. Throw in the random 4AM whimper/cries from Abbie (she's pushing out some molars and we think that's why she's decided to greet each morning with an alpine start) and all the best intentions are lost to the longing for the next good nights sleep.

As far as ambition and ideas are concerned...the cold weather has brought back a strong urge to be swinging tools and climbing ice. I feel like I can hardly call myself a climber's been a year since I last tied in and took the sharp end of anything. But I miss the mountains so much, particularly this time of year. Or course, so much has changed since I was in Alaska a few years back, or freezing my ass of on La Pomme d'Or with Kevin (photo courtesy of Fred Maltais). But I still want to be a climber, I haven't resigned myself to the notion that I was....rather, I'm trying to embrace the idea that I will be. I think one of the struggles we all face is the fight against falling prey to resignation. I can find a list of reasons why I'm not climbing anymore...but ultimately I've resigned myself to the notion that the list is enough of a deterrent to keep me away. It's an easy way's a lame excuse, really. We've all got excuses why we aren't getting things done...what we really need to do is get our asses off the couch and out the door.