Wednesday, January 27, 2010

My head hurts...

This is a copy of an email I sent to Sharon Epperson this morning...

Volatility
Is really something right now...there is a lot going on Sharon, so much news, so many rumours...Let's think about everything since last thursday morning...a negative Philly Index, the presidents press conference on the banks...a bullish crude number which hasn't played out in the markets, the Bernanke story at the end of the week, the Bernanke story at the beginning of the week...Greece, Spain...China telling banks to stop lending, rumours of China lending money to Greece, people continuing to buy US treasuries and watching yields come down...The dow and s&p getting hit in spite of relatively good earnings...AIG hearings today...state of the Union tonight...another supply number today, trying to figure out whether or not to believe the API's...and this is only in 1 WEEK!!! We are in the midst of an incredibly volatile period, and looks as though there's no end in sight...
Really something

I know, I know...most of you are out there wondering why the hell I do this...I'm still trying to figure that out. I have days where I feel really good, like I can keep this gig going. I don't feel guilty about what I'm doing...I'm not killing anybody, and my 50 trades a day are definitely NOT having any impact on markets that see cumulative volumes of BILLIONS of transactions a day. I've been able to spend the first year of my daughter's life at home...waking up with her every morning, walking my dog, having coffee with my wife. I'll never, ever regret this time.

To me, everything is just a number, and I'm trying to figure out which numbers look right and which seem a little off. Some say it's like gambling, spinning the wheel and betting on black. I don't see it that way, I'd like to think that success (or failure) is reliant upon far more than chance. The email this morning is a summary of all the things that I've noticed have had immediate impact on the markets in the past 5 sessions. Supply number this morning at 10:30...who knows what today will bring

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