If you believe...

We put a man on the moon.

We can build phones as powerful as desktop computers and use hydrogen to power an automobile....but we can't build a freakin' shutoff valve on an oil rig that's dumping 5000 barrels of oil a day into the Gulf?

The long road

Stitches are out...no news is good news so it looks like I'm in the clear until my next appointment in July.
Found out a few weeks ago that my auto-entry into New York was accepted, so it looks like I'll be toeing the line in Staten Island on Sunday morning, November 7th (my bro's birthday). The way I see it, if I'm only going to do one marathon, I might as well make it a big one.
It goes without saying that it wasn't an easy winter for running or cycling here in the mid-atlantic...throw in some minor surgery and I'm basically starting from scratch. It all started today...
3.2 miles/7:40 pace...a long way to go

Reasons to smile...

Warmer, sunnier days are here once again (I'm sure it'll snow next week now that I've put it out there)...

My dear friends Nick and Mary M/C became proud parents of 3 miraculous, beautiful little Migliaccio's this weekend. Patrick, Nicholas and Eliana showed up a few weeks early, but Mary assures us that everyone is doing well...


I've got 7 stitches behind my right knee and I'll be a little out of shape for a few weeks this spring, but it looks like I've managed to make it thru another round of skin exams without any concerns for significant problems. And along the way I've managed to discover the most wonderful doctors and nurses at the University of Pennsylvania Dermatology Center. If any of you are ever concerned about skin issues, I urge you to seek their advice...

Abigail continues to fill our days with joy. She hasn't managed to quote the Bard yet, but she's happy and healthy and climbing all over the place (and yes, she brushes her teeth every night)...

Hope the sun is shining wherever you are...

He Said What?

Watching CNBC this morning (I've been weaning myself off of CNBC, but I still watch it until 9AM because I really like Joe Kernen...after that it's Bloomberg or the Weather Channel. In my opinion, CNBC is losing credibility as a reliable financial source on a daily basis. Following is an example to support my argument...).
Steve Liesman has John Corzine on this morning...he just called him a financial GENIUS...that's right, GENIUS. I'm fairly certain that many of us who live in New Jersey would have no problem taking the other side of that argument.

Boilerplate

National Weather Service Forecast
North Conway, NH

Tonight: A chance of snow showers, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 7. Wind chill values as low as -10. West wind between 10 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 13. Wind chill values as low as -11. West wind around 17 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -4. Wind chill values as low as -19. West wind between 9 and 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 17. Northwest wind between 7 and 9 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 4.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 23.

Seriously, what the hell am I thinking?

My head hurts...

This is a copy of an email I sent to Sharon Epperson this morning...

Volatility
Is really something right now...there is a lot going on Sharon, so much news, so many rumours...Let's think about everything since last thursday morning...a negative Philly Index, the presidents press conference on the banks...a bullish crude number which hasn't played out in the markets, the Bernanke story at the end of the week, the Bernanke story at the beginning of the week...Greece, Spain...China telling banks to stop lending, rumours of China lending money to Greece, people continuing to buy US treasuries and watching yields come down...The dow and s&p getting hit in spite of relatively good earnings...AIG hearings today...state of the Union tonight...another supply number today, trying to figure out whether or not to believe the API's...and this is only in 1 WEEK!!! We are in the midst of an incredibly volatile period, and looks as though there's no end in sight...
Really something

I know, I know...most of you are out there wondering why the hell I do this...I'm still trying to figure that out. I have days where I feel really good, like I can keep this gig going. I don't feel guilty about what I'm doing...I'm not killing anybody, and my 50 trades a day are definitely NOT having any impact on markets that see cumulative volumes of BILLIONS of transactions a day. I've been able to spend the first year of my daughter's life at home...waking up with her every morning, walking my dog, having coffee with my wife. I'll never, ever regret this time.

To me, everything is just a number, and I'm trying to figure out which numbers look right and which seem a little off. Some say it's like gambling, spinning the wheel and betting on black. I don't see it that way, I'd like to think that success (or failure) is reliant upon far more than chance. The email this morning is a summary of all the things that I've noticed have had immediate impact on the markets in the past 5 sessions. Supply number this morning at 10:30...who knows what today will bring

2 Days

2 Bikes, 2 Rides...it might as well have been 2 seasons. Saturday felt like one of those late winter days when the sun shines a little warmer on your face and you catch yourself thinking about what it might be like to go for a ride without your entire winter kit. I went for a ride on the Moots...no computer, no heart rate, no watts...just rolling out the door for a few hours. Everyone seemed to be out. I could see all the lines on the side of the road...tires rolling thru a few months of salt and leaving their mark. I wondered who was rolling up the ridge before me...it looks like Don and the boys finally had a good morning. 2 hours in an easy gear, staying in the saddle, smiling the whole time...every Saturday ride in January should be so good.

It took me about an hour to get the blood flowing thru my toes after yesterdays ride. Sunday felt like one of those late November rides where you can't help but wonder what the hell you were thinking when you rolled out the door. Sometimes you hear people talk about "character building" rides or efforts. Sometimes I'll speak of particularly hard days as sufferfests. I'm not sure my character is any stronger...and 90 minutes hardly qualifies as a "fest" of any sort...but rolling down Tracy with the rain literally stinging my legs (it felt at one point like I had a bunch of needles being jabbed into my legs) certainly deserves a qualifier of some sort...I'm open to suggestions.

January miles on the roads, whether they be on skinny tires or fat, are bonus miles. The Cyclops is still the primary mode of "transport". But every so often it's nice take off the training wheels and go for a ride.

Kicking Television...

Is the name of a GREAT live album (or CD, or download...I'm not really sure how any of us get ahold of our music anymore) by Wilco. I mention the album because it has become the soundtrack to my morning as I'm dancing around the house with Abigail...singing, laughing and generally having a glorious time. Saturday mornings have become daddy time around here. Kira's found a great friend and running partner in Tori, so she's usually out the door after feeding Abbie her breakfast. Some mornings we're out the door for a walk with Luna, this morning we're dancing around the house because it's 15 degrees outside.

I started the New Year with every intention of being more prolific with my journal/blogging entries. And then life gets in the way. It's funny how each morning can start full of ambition and ideas...and by 8PM you wonder where the day has gone and all you want to do is top off your glass of wine and watch an episode of House. Throw in the random 4AM whimper/cries from Abbie (she's pushing out some molars and we think that's why she's decided to greet each morning with an alpine start) and all the best intentions are lost to the longing for the next good nights sleep.

As far as ambition and ideas are concerned...the cold weather has brought back a strong urge to be swinging tools and climbing ice. I feel like I can hardly call myself a climber anymore...it's been a year since I last tied in and took the sharp end of anything. But I miss the mountains so much, particularly this time of year. Or course, so much has changed since I was in Alaska a few years back, or freezing my ass of on La Pomme d'Or with Kevin (photo courtesy of Fred Maltais). But I still want to be a climber, I haven't resigned myself to the notion that I was....rather, I'm trying to embrace the idea that I will be. I think one of the struggles we all face is the fight against falling prey to resignation. I can find a list of reasons why I'm not climbing anymore...but ultimately I've resigned myself to the notion that the list is enough of a deterrent to keep me away. It's an easy way out....it's a lame excuse, really. We've all got excuses why we aren't getting things done...what we really need to do is get our asses off the couch and out the door.

It's been a while, Part 2

Ok, so yesterday was pretty random considering I haven't posted in a month. I've had quite a bit to write about in the past month, but it seems like the time slips past so quickly. On the surface, that probably seems absurd, considering I'm at my desk most of the day staring at computers. Generally, though, those computers are tossing numbers all over the place that require my attention...and writing often requires a fair amount of attention as well. Seeing as I'm not getting paid to write anything, but those numbers tossing around might help pay a few bills (or, in yesterday's case, cause me to further ponder the question why I STILL deal with those numbers every day)...I haven't written much.
Of course, there has been A LOT to talk about. Thanksgiving with family, and all the things to be be thankful for. Abbie's first birthday (it's already been a year, CRAZY). Abigail walking. Abigail pointing at things and starting to give us some serious baby talk. Abigail making it all the way up the stairs without us knowing. Abigail smiling and hugging and generally being such a happy, content little girl.
Some much needed rest...a few extra days sleeping in. Lots of 1 year old birthday parties. A strained Achilles (getting better...that's the first time I've done that, and it is NOT a pleasant injury). Looking back on all the year has brought us and looking ahead at what's to come. Lots to talk about, indeed.
As for yesterday's quote...Kira has often asked me to talk a bit more about what I think about the present state of things with regards to the economy. While I'm no expert (Who is, really?)...I certainly have some opinions, particularly with the present state of things. So, from time to time I might toss something out there, like yesterday's quote. Keynes had little faith in the private sector and thus argued that public participation (i.e. government) was necessary in order for stable, productive markets (it goes without saying that the preceding is perhaps the crudest definition of Keynesian economics ever written, and I would surely receive a failing grade on any econ 101 paper with said definition). While I agree that blind faith in the private sector is akin to locking the fox in the hen house...insatiable greed run amok knows no bounds and will never lead to a beneficial end...I don't believe Keynes could have ever imagined government intervention on the scale we see today. And just as the belief in "free markets" is naive, the HOPE that the government...the big tax and big spend, earmark, special interest, our forefathers are rolling over in their graves, government...is equally unfounded.

It's been a while

"Speculators may do no harm as bubbles on a steady stream of enterprise. But the position is serious when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation. When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done. The measure of success attained by Wall Street, regarded as an institution of which the proper social purpose is to direct new investment into the most profitable channels in terms of future yield, cannot be claimed as one of the outstanding triumphs of laissez-faire capitalism…." While I certainly do not agree with alot of things Mr. Keynes had to say, this sure does strike a chord with me

Mike Seidel

Is the Man...
Some of you might know that I'm a bit of a weather geek...I've got the degree in Atmospheric Science to prove it (a degree, by the way, that Kira thinks I would probably have a lot more fun putting to good use than the way I currently spend my days, staring at a screen, watching oil and gas prices and constantly stressing...she's totally right, but that's another topic for another post). You might not know it where you're sitting, but the Mid-Atlantic coast is getting absolutely hammered as I'm writing this...a storm which, when all is said and done, might do more damage than any hurricane has ever done from the Outer Banks to the Jersey Shore.
The Weather Channel, of course, is in the middle of all of it. I'll be the first to admit that the Weather Channel is not quite the same since NBC took it over and Al Rokerfied it (I'm of the opinion that the addition of Al Roker to anything meteorological automatically renders it illegitimate). But for every Al Roker there is a Dr. Steve Lyons or Jim Cantore. Or, in today's case, Mike Seidel. Yes, he's wearing goggles...and yes, he's getting pounded in Virginia Beach today...and yes, he's probably loving every minute of it...and YES, I am jealous.
So, if you know anyone down in the DelMarVa, give 'em a call today and see how they're doing. And maybe, just maybe, a few more days like today might make me consider a career change.

Where it all started

On January 18, 2005, Kira and I had our 2nd date. It's an easy date to remember because I still have the ticket stub from the show we saw that night. I had started listening to Ray LaMontagne a few months earlier and was excited to see him for the first time with Kira at the TLA. It was the first of many trips I would be making to Philly in the coming months (and years!). We've seen him several times since then but that night, for me, was the best. I had never heard a voice like that...it was haunting, powerful, vulnerable...that voice has been with us ever since.
Ever since, obviously, has encompassed a lot. The move to Philly, the move to Hoboken, the wedding, the move to Westfield, the arrival of Abigail Ray (and now you all know where Abbie gets her middle name!)...and tomorrow night we're heading back to Philly to see Ray again. This time he's performing at the Tower Theater. He's performing solo, just like the first time. Date night has taken on a whole new meaning now that Abbie is here and we're both looking forward to our first Saturday night out in quite a while

New York, New York

This is NOT about the Yankees (I had to put that out there for my Philadelphia family and friends who read this and might otherwise decide this is one entry they can do without).
Today is The NYC Marathon. I was going to simply call it The Marathon because, well, it's New York. But there are other marathons, for sure. There is Boston, which everyone who runs a marathon harbors dreams of qualifying for some day. There is Philly, of course, 26.2 miles of Brotherly Love. And there are countless others that take place every month, in every state...fast courses, hilly courses...rock and roll marathons, trail marathons. Every marathon is a different race for everyone who ties 'em on in the morning, whether you hope to finish in 2:10 or 4:10...the demons and doubts are there for everyone at mile 20...the marathon is an equal opportunity sufferfest.
We have a few friends running today...JVA is using New York as the start of her 4 marathons in 4 weeks, she has already run Boston, run over 100 miles in 24 hours and done more things in sneakers than many of us could ever dream. Eric is running 26.2 for the first time today. He's dealt with all the setbacks in training...the knees, the feet, the stomach. It's going to hurt a bit and he knows it. I'm sure there are others we know toeing the line at 9 AM on Staten Island...everyone has a story today about the Marathon and the trip they took to get there. Everyone will cover the exact same path of 26.2 miles and yet they will all see each mile in their own way. They will all have similar questions at the start and they'll all find different answers along the way. Today I'm thinking of everyone running in New York..wishing you all fleet feet, steady stomachs and PR's

My Little LadyBug

After spending a beautiful October morning at the Westfield Halloween Parade, it's pretty apparent to me that all of us new parents have A LOT of fun dressing up our little ones and taking an inordinate number of pictures. We had a lot of fun trying to capture the "perfect" moment...hoping the little ones would hold a particular pose or place in line (or on the ground) just long enough for a picture. We learned that Abigail is quite a little lover, literally, as she spent a good part of the day kissing nearly every baby she laid her eyes on...that's all I need, my 11 month old already has a reputation.

My daughter's risque behavior notwithstanding, it was a really great day. Kira's mommy group is a great crew of girls and it's always nice to see them all together. It seems to be going by so quickly, this first year...it's hard to wrap my hands around the idea that Abigail is almost one. We're waiting for those first few steps and the incoherent mumblings are starting to take some shape. We catch ourselves wishing we could slow things down just a bit, but we're enjoying every minute.

Changing subjects...Kira and I made a few changes to the flickr page with regards to privacy, but we realize it might be more trouble than it's worth. Let me know if you guys are having any problems checking out the pics and we'll do our best to take care of it. Thanks again

Back at it

Wanted to say thanks to everyone for being so supportive in my week of self pity following the Zof...I'm over it. It's really remarkable to have friends and family who are able to offer kind words from so many perspectives.
So, after a week of nothing...no bikes, no runs...nothing...the offseason training has officially started here for Team Theesfeld. This year is a bit different than last, as there won't be another little one arriving in a few weeks time (hard to believe that Abigail is almost 11 months old already). Kira and I are both trying to find a way to keep things rolling along...no big rides or runs or races, just getting outside and enjoying the effort. Slower runs, easy rides...I took the powermeter off my bike, it's nice to be free of the numbers for a bit.

(I'm about to inject some personal feelings with regards to the economy and what I think is going on...nothing real specific. They're only my thoughts, I'm no expert...and I'm totally apologizing ahead of time if anyone thinks I'm full of it...)

I think it's just as important to try and recover from all the other efforts as well. I've admittedly spent too much time getting sucked into all the fear mongering that's out there with regards to the economy. I realize, of course, that part of it is my job to stay informed in order to make good decisions. But there's a difference between being informed and inundated with opinion, conjecture and just plain BS. I wonder if it should still be my job, I wonder what else I could do. I want to be less affected by it...I wish I could just trade the numbers and not constantly wonder what they all mean, where it's all heading. But I also feel so fortunate to wake up with my daughter each morning, to have coffee with my wife. I feel so lucky to have spent all this time with Abigail and Kira from the very beginning...I don't want to miss a thing. At the end of the day, I just want to do what's right...and I think we all feel the same way, regardless of how we go about it.

Sorting it out

Found this on Jordan Rapp's blog...

We tend to celebrate risk only after it has led to great things, which means we rarely celebrate the risk-takers who haven't yet been rewarded for their efforts. The paradox here is that we are often unwilling to embrace ambition and originality until it is safe to do so - in short, we're unwilling to take risks ourselves.

Gotta keep on keepin' on

DNF

The following is an email I sent to my friend Geoff Clark, who was checking in after he hadn't heard from me these past few days after the Zof. It's not as well written or clever as some of my usual posts, but clever and cute doesn't seem as easy right now.

Haven't been able to put it into words yet...3 simple letters, DNF. My first ever. Got off the bike after 5 hours, started the run, my right knee wanted nothing to do with it. Walked a bit, tried to run again, same thing. I was tired, upset , didn't want to fight, frustrated..pulled off my number belt and called it in.
I've spent the last few days trying to figure out what went wrong..still trying to figure it out. On paper, I was ready for a big day, all the numbers looked good. But numbers aren't results and now I've got some time to ponder all the hard work with nothing to show for it. Tough to finish the season this way.
Kira did great, finished the short course in 3:41, easily beating her goal of sub 4 hours. She's going to have set some goals next year other than simply finishing these races.
Thanks for all the encouragement and support Geoff, it's really meant a lot. Fortunately, it looks like the 2010 Zof is in May, so I won't have to wait too long for another chance. Full details...and some discussions, perhaps, on where things might have gone wrong...to follow.

Thanks again to everyone who offered their support these past few months...and particular thanks to Kira, who is now dealing with a husband suddenly questioning his ability and mental strength. I wish I could go out and give it another shot tomorrow, just to erase some of these doubts in my head. Instead, I'll try my best to sort out the good and bad and figure out what went wrong. It makes for a far less satisfying end of the season, but it makes me look forward to erasing these thoughts from my mind when 2010 gets rolling

Just One Day

6...Months of focused training
4000...miles of riding and running
Nearly 300...hours of time on the bike or pavement or trails
All for one day
Tomorrow is the Zof, finally. We dropped Abigail and Luna off at my folks house last night. Our first night away from our little girl, and we miss her so much. Kira is in tears at the kitchen table and I'm trying to keep a strong chin. It'll get easier, won't it?
Kira is battling a stiff neck which will make the ride a bit uncomfortable, but she's ready to suffer thru it. I'm ready to put it out there and see what happens. The forecast is for a chilly start but a sunny, 60 degree day. A fine day for some suffering...so Bring It On

Puddle Jumping

Yesterday we threw on some wetsuits and ran the Newport Liberty Half Marathon in Jersey City. OK, maybe we didn't wear wetsuits, but there was something to be said for waterproofness, given the absolute soaking we got.
There was a little part of me that hoped the girls (Kira and her friend and running partner Torrie) would wake up Sunday morning and decide they didn't want to run in the rain because, well...I didn't particularly want to run in the rain. Alas, Torrie tapped on the door at 6:40, just as I was finishing a quick walk with Luna, and we were off to JC a few minutes later.
We got a great spot in the parking garage where we could lay out all our gear, searching for the right combination...the girls went thru all the options...tights, knickers, or shorts? Long sleeve, tank top, or short sleeve? Rain jacket or no? I said the hell with it, put on shorts and a tank top and accepted the fact that I would be completely wet to the core by the end of it, but at least I wouldn't be weighed down by too many wet clothes. We pinned numbers, topped off with a bit of water, applied vaseline in strategic places, took some gu and rolled to the start.
Starting lines always fascinate me...everyone at the front always looks so damn fast...strong and lean. They all look like they know what they're doing...plyometrics, a few quick sprints, some stretching...I usually reach over, touch my toes and hope for the best. I wasn't born or raised as a runner, this whole thing is relatively new to me...I feel like I'm making it up as I go along.
Just before the starters horn I asked Kira what she was hoping to finish in, she said 1:53 and asked me what I was thinking. I decided I was just going to run...no watch, just run and see what happens...and we were off.
Trying to describe a 13 mile course could take a while, and though I'm obviously prone to some lengthy prose, I'll spare you all the details...needless to say, it was a very difficult course. The most obvious difficulty was due to the amount of water on the course. Puddles everywhere, some shallow, some with the look of a bottomless pool, eliciting a quick pulse of fear as we ran thru them. The notion of running tangents was dismissed as lines were decided based upon how deep the puddle looked or how hard it would be to run around. Besides the water on the course, we ran in a continual light steady rain and relentless south/southeasterly wind, which felt like running uphill at the southern end of the park and sucked the life out of us each time we had to run towards the Statue of Liberty. And finally, due in part to the fact that's it's impossible to fit a round peg into a square hole, or in this case a half marathon into a 4 mile long stretch of real estate, the course took us on all kinds of turns and loops through Newport and Liberty State Park. Lots of turns and loops makes it hard to keep any kind of rhythm, no matter how fast or slow you run, and yesterday's course was perhaps the most difficult I've run in that regard.
With all that...the rain, the water, the twists and turns...the girls ran in style. I almost missed Kira crossing the line since she came rolling thru nearly 5 minutes before her goal, crossing the line in 1:49:10, good enough to be in the top 100 women out of nearly 700, setting a PR and looking and feeling all the while that she could've (and should've!) run faster. And Torrie, who insists she can't run long distances, finished her first half marathon in 1:52:39. Given the conditions and the course, it's not much of a stretch to say the girls could, and will, go faster. I think Kira has a sub-1:45 half in her. But given her goal here, and the fact that we've got the Zof in 2 weeks, she's right on pace to finish the season strong and go into the winter feeling good...and in the right mindset to set some goals for next year. Not too bad for a new mom, eh?
As for me...well, I defied the advice of the Guru...kind of. I ran how I felt and figured I would back off when it felt like enough. But other than some tightness in my right calf, I felt "good". I could still feel friday's workout (I got a 60 mile ride/6 mile run in) in my quads, but the pain kind of settled into the rhythm of the run...and in the end I crossed the line in 1:22:55, a new PR for me and an indication that I'm stronger than last year and ready for the Zof Long Course...let the taper begin.

Decisions, Decisions

So, we're 2 weeks away from the Zof and I'm trying to figure out how to structure the last few important days of training. Kira is running the Newport Half this weekend and I'm thinking of joining her but I'm not sure how I should approach it. I've got one big ride/run day to do this week, something that will get me close to 4 hours of work (maybe a 60 mile ride with an "easy" 10K). And here's the dilemma. If I do the half on Sunday, I want to do well, like set a PR (1:24:55 in Philly last year). But I'll be putting myself pretty far behind it with a big day of work and certainly won't be coming into the half in top form. And as I'm writing this I'm thinking "Seriously Mike, stop complaining and just get it done...do a big day and then go run as fast as you can". It's funny...this blogging, this thinking aloud about my "issues"...I should be so lucky that my drama this morning is whether or not I should run a half marathon on sunday after getting 70 miles in a few days before. I think it's good for me to start to write these things down...it gets easier to check myself and realize how I can turn some insignificant issue into some drama...and anyone who reads along acts as my therapist for a day. So thanks...looks like I've got some work ahead of me in the next few days